Unreported data indicate a GOP victory in the PA suburbs

Republished with permission from Azan kotsurumbass In Real Clear Wire

In late September, ABC News/Washington Post released a national poll with little fanfare, the results of which confirm what we already know: the economy and inflation are the top priorities of potential voters in this midterm election.

No other issue comes close. In fact, “Education and Schools” leads “Abortion” by 15 points.

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Buried in the poll, however, was a surprising result as it relates to “competitive” congressional districts typically found in suburban and suburban communities.

With a margin of 21 points, the poll found that suburban and suburban congressional districts favor Republican candidates.

Comparing those “competitive” districts with so-called “safe Republican” districts, the poll found that voters in “safe Republican” districts favor Republican candidates by 24 points.

In other words, “competitive” and “safe republic” congressional seats favor Republican candidates by roughly the same margin.

Here in Pennsylvania, that translates to parts of suburban Philadelphia and Pittsburgh that vote as if they had just come back from John Dutton’s Yellowstone farm. These “general ballot” numbers are staggering.

In fact, it may be unprecedented. One would have to go back to 1994 or 2010 to find anything similar.

This suburban-suburban trend is manifested in another, more concrete, historical and unreported way.

In suburban Philadelphia, registered Democratic and independent voters are changing their party to the Republican Party in numbers not seen since these stats were first tracked by the state government.

In the Philadelphia suburb of Bucks, voters change their party affiliation to the Republican Party by a 2:1 margin over the Democrats. Party trends of change continue to favor Republicans in Philadelphia’s three remaining suburban counties. In Philadelphia, Republicans are 10 points ahead of Democrats in changing parties.

The trend is more pronounced in the western Pennsylvania suburbs. Voters convert their parties to the Republican Party by a margin greater than 2:1 in Butler County, outside of Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, the trend is 60/40 Republican.

Democrats claim they are driving new registrars and that the US Supreme Court’s abortion decision has weakened the trend of party change. As a byproduct of car voter laws, new voter registrations are generally a lagging indicator. Since the summer, the trend of partisan change seems to be fading away.

With suburban and suburban voters predicting an electoral landslide for the Republican Party unlike anything else, the Pennsylvania-wide races are still close. This is the job of candidates and campaigns.

For Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz, polls suggest his way to victory is not by persuading swing voters, but by having a Republican base on his team that has been paused by a brutal initial multi-million dollar battle. To these core Republicans, Democratic candidate John Fetterman is no novice.

In the race for governance, a fascinating campaign is taking shape that will test all political norms. Despite Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro spending one week more on YouTube than Republican candidate Doug Mastriano in his latest financial report, public opinion polls are making the race a very close match for Mastriano. Finally, the pro-Shapiro effort may have already spent more than $40 million while Mastriano may have spent no more than $3 million for the entire general election campaign.

For races such as the Senate and State Assembly in Pennsylvania, including Congress, bottom ballot campaigns remain stubbornly competitive for suburban and suburban Republican candidates despite their massive public suffrage advantage.

Democratic candidates have convinced themselves that abortion makes races competitive. However, an ABC News/Washington Post poll appears to argue just the opposite.

These suburban and suburban races are not “in play” and are fool’s gold for Democrats. The reason is that redistricting dramatically changed the composition of these counties in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. In some of these suburban and suburban areas, parts that have been part of an area for generations are being replaced by entirely new communities. In some cases, the change is greater than 50%.

With these campaigns beginning in earnest, voters are unlikely to know which candidates on the ballot will be on the ballot, let alone the Republican candidate. Voters are just now learning the identities of these candidates through effective methods such as direct mail and social media, which take longer periods of time and more repetition to get a message across.

Ultimately, primary objection and interference will result in Republicans winning the ballot in the suburbs and suburbs of Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Republican candidates are being implemented.

In his inaugural campaign speech for the governor, John Dutton of Yellowstone explains, “I am the opposite of progress. I am the wall that breaks, and I am not the one that breaks.”

Suburban and suburban voters seem to be channeling inner John Dutton to halt the Biden administration’s vision for progress.

from San Jose News Bulletin https://sjnewsbulletin.com/unreported-data-indicate-a-gop-victory-in-the-pa-suburbs/