by Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Author
At this time last year, it was Invoices It was 2-1. Exactly as they are this year. But their attack was completely different.
For the first three weeks of last year, the Bills led the first half in every game. In fact, their average lead in the first half was 12.3 points in those three games. That was No. 1 in the NFL.
They were aggressive early on with the intent to win early.
The story was similar in 2020. The Bills topped the first half in all three games to start the 2020 season, this time averaging 14.3 points. This was also No. 1 in the NFL.
But in 2022?
This is not the case.
Leads in the first half in weeks 1-3:
2020: three
2021: three
2022: one
Average first half in weeks 1-3:
2020: 14.3 points
2021: 12.3 points
2022: 3.3 points
Why aren’t the bills racing to drive? Instead of focusing on blasting, they focus on efficiency.
Tua’s Dolphins took a great win, but the Bills are still the better team
Nick Wright explains why he thinks the Bills are better than the Dolphins, along with his concerns about their offense that relies so much on Allen.
Take a look at the shift in the Bills’ overall crime strategy in 2022:
Josh Allen’s air yards in early touchdowns in the first half of games:
2020: 8.0
2021: 7.7
2022: 5.5
Josh Allen averaged down early beyond the first drop mark in the first half:
2020: 32% (No. 5 in the NFL)
2021: 30% (No. 5 in the NFL)
2022: 21% (No. 22 in the NFL)
It remains to be seen if this strategy will work for an entire season. But one thing is true: This strategy reduces the lead in the first half and forces both units, attack and defense, to work very hard in the second half of matches to lock in wins.
This is completely against the laws of 2020 and 2021.
It’s also the opposite of the 2022 Eagles, who are leading in the first half by averaging 17 points over three weeks.
The huge benefit of big leads is the ability to put players off late in matches and put in fewer plays from your attack on the movie. Defensive coordinators are like sponges. The more they see, the more they will have to prepare for you. Which is why many novice QBs can start quickly but slow down the intermediate season once enough film has appeared on them.
In an ideal world, teams go up by more than one score in the first half, and they could lag behind and score as few plays on the bar as possible. But this is possible only if the team is aggressive and explosive.
And Ken Dorsey’s billing, though efficient, was a far cry from the aggressive and explosive first half of Brian Dabul Bills.
The new kids in the building
heads. Invoices. beams; The book. chargers. crows; rams; ponies.
Those were just some of the best crimes committed in the past two years in turning driving into points.
The sooner we understand teams that have vastly exceeded expectations, the more we can excel.
Some of you reading this might shock some of you, but some of the New Blood Crimes that rank in the top 10 in the percentage of driving with these points include:
1. Jaguar
2. Brown
6. Dolphins
7. Hawks
9. Black
10. Eagles
Sure, The Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills are still in the top ten. But these six listed crimes are all about to surface this year.
All of them are in the top 10 in EPA (expected added points) for each game as well:
2. Dolphins
3. Brown
5. Black
6. Eagles
8. Jaguar
9. Hawks
Can these crimes keep them going for the rest of the season? We’ll find out soon.
Watching jaguars and eagles was very exciting. In each of the last two games, they’ve been very effective in the first half of the games, closing things off by the third quarter.
Jacksonville led 17-0 in the first half and 24-0 in the third against the Colts in Week 3.
They then led 16-7 in the first half and 31-10 in the third against the Chargers in Week 4.
The Eagles led 24-7 in the first half against the Vikings in Week 3 and 24-0 in the first half against Washington in Week 4. After scoring 24 in each half, they did nothing in the second half. They did not try to expand their progress because their opponent did not force them to.
Next Sunday, we’ll take both of these dominant offenses early in the games head-to-head. Will she jump into such a commanding leadership that she can fall behind? Or will this be one of the instant classics we didn’t expect to see before the season?
Doug Pederson faces the privilege that fired him. You know the Jaguars will play hard for him. I’m interested to see how well their defense against the vultures’ attack worked. Sure, the defense is sure to look good playing Carson Wentz, injection painkiller Justin Herbert and whatever the Colts offense is. How will they deal with the aggressive and dynamic attack of the vultures?
This is a game I can’t wait to watch and unravel later this week.
The Eagles 3-0, Sean Payton discusses the rise of Galen Hurts
Sean Payton tells Colin Cord why he still thinks the 49ers will come out on top in the NFC West. Plus, is Eagle Galen Hurts a legitimate Super Bowl contender after starting the season with a 3-0 score?
lamar jackson fucking
We already know this. But it is important to remind you of it as often as possible.
The Patriots defense posted 56% pressure on early withdrawals in the first three quarters of Sunday, the highest of any defense in the NFL.
They attacked at a rate well above average.
And against a blitz, Jackson went 11 of 12 with 4 TDs and +0.98 EPA.
His performance against blitz, based on an EPA/att delivered with no less than 12 dip points, was his second best performance of any QB season.
Is the only time this year that QB has delivered more EPA per attempt against Blitz than Lamar Jackson did against the Patriots on Sunday?
Lamar Jackson, facing the dolphins the previous week.
Be wary of high leverage success
The Bronco It has the NFL’s worst success rate in early relegation (34.7%) but the twelfth NFL success rate in third relegation (45.3%).
They also fared much better in the fourth quarter (33.3%) than they did in the fourth quarter (27.8%).
This is a team you should take care of. Yes, they are now 2-1 on the season, but the odds of them continuing their outstanding performance in the third touchdown or in the fourth quarter are unlikely.
Another team to be concerned about is the Carolina Panthers. Yes, I bet they were the underdogs last week and I was happy with their surprise win. But they had a shocking success early on and had to beat expectations for third place.
Top examples of teams meeting the same criteria for concerns earlier this season?
In the first week, the Bears won thanks to outstanding success in third place, but they were terrible in the early touchdowns. They lost so hard in the second week.
Week 2, the Buccaneers were grossly bad in their early touchdowns (20.4%), and worst in the NFL, but were roughly average in their third defeats (36.8%) in a close win over the Saints. As a result of the big leverage win, they were overestimated against the Packers last week and totally lost.
While the Broncos and Panthers looked like they’ve just turned the corner with a Week 3 win, dig deeper into their Week 4 matches before running to the window to support them.
Does anyone know what Matt Canada is doing?
This might sound shocking given what we think of 1-2 Steelers based on their performance, but let’s trust the data here.
Earlier in this article, I touched on how important first-half performance is in winning matches.
In the first half of the games, the Steelers’ early passing attack ranked third in EPA/att (+0.39) and fourth in pass rate (61%) when passing for less than 15 air yards.
However, they threw over 20 air yards at the second highest rate of any team in the NFL in these flips.
They are ranked #21 in the EPA/attempt in such throws.
Mitchell Trubesky ranks lowest 10 in EPA/attempt when throwing sticks (at any bottom) and number 12 in EPA/attempt when throwing sticks away.
However, Mitchell Trubesky has the second highest average in the NFL, behind only James Winston.
I’m definitely not proving that Trubisky is cool. But the Steelers have been in tight games all year and their OC seems to have done them no favors with his offensive strategy as it relates to the passing game.
Pittsburgh is 1-2 and hasn’t covered a single game against spread, but this team is playing hard and can conceivably be above 0.500 even without TJ Watt.
Warren Sharp is the NFL Analyst at FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has served as a consultant for league franchises while previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at Tweet embed
Get more from the National Football League Follow your favorites for information about games, news, and more.
from San Jose News Bulletin https://sjnewsbulletin.com/how-good-is-lamar-jackson-in-addition-bills-new-attack-the-rising-teams/
No comments:
Post a Comment