Nearly 200 countries are set to tackle climate change at COP27 in Egypt

Matt MacDonald University of Queensland

In a crucial meeting to tackle the climate crisis, nearly 200 countries gather in Egypt at the beginning of November for the “Conference of the Parties,” or COP27.

You may remember hearing about COP26 in Glasgow this time last year. It has often been hailed as our “last best chance” of keeping global warming below 1.5°C this century.

Since then, emissions have reached record levels after the pandemic subsided. And this year alone, we’ve seen dozens of catastrophic disasters ranging from droughts in the Horn of Africa to floods in Pakistan, South Africa and Australia, and wildfires and heat waves in Europe, the United States, Mongolia and South America, among others.

As UN Secretary-General António Guterres said this week:

The only solution on every climate front is decisive solidarity action. COP27 is the right place for all countries […] To show that they are in and in this fight together.

So, with disasters intensifying and war raging in Ukraine, what can we expect from this important summit?

What happens in COP meetings?

The Conferences of the Parties are held under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and this year marks its 30th anniversary at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. COP27 will be held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt.

COPs allow the international community to decide on an equitable distribution of responsibility for tackling climate change. That is, who should lead efforts to reduce emissions, who should pay for the transition to new forms of energy production, and who should compensate those who are already feeling the effects of climate change.

It also allows countries to agree on rules for meeting commitments, or transfers of money and resources from rich countries to poorer countries. They also provide opportunities to share the latest climate change research.

Equally important, COP meetings focus on international attention and responses to the climate crisis. This puts pressure on countries to make new commitments, or at least, to play a constructive role in the negotiations.

Is COP27 less important than COP26?

In some ways, COP27 is less important than COP26. This meeting, the first in two years after the coronavirus delay, was the deadline for countries to commit to new emissions reduction targets under the rules of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The agreement allowed countries to make their own commitments, with these commitments expected to increase every five years. Glasgow was essentially a big test of whether the deal actually increases commitments to tackle climate change.

Glasgow was also significant because it was the first COP since the United States returned to the fold after the Trump administration’s withdrawal.

By contrast, Sharm el-Sheikh is not a test of the agreement itself. It is an opportunity to renew the commitment to mitigation and financing, and to decide on the next steps to achieve these commitments.

But there is still much at stake, and some crucial points of discussion loom.

Will more countries make new commitments?

The first big test for COP27 will be whether countries will make new commitments to reduce emissions.

In Glasgow, more than 100 countries have committed to new emissions reduction targets. But these commitments still fall far short of what is required to reach the goals agreed upon in Paris.

Rather than providing a path to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2, the Glasgow commitments have shown that they put the world on track to increase to 2.4 by the end of the century.

This would put people and ecosystems around the world at risk. This is assuming that those countries achieve the goals.

Despite this, in the run-up to COP27, fewer than 20 countries provided updates, and only a handful of them set new emissions reduction targets or zero net commitments. Of these, only India and Australia are among the countries that produce more than 1% of global carbon dioxide emissions.

Show us the money

Three big issues around climate finance – funds to support mitigation and adaptation – also loom large in Egypt.

The first is the failure of developed countries to meet their 2009 commitments to provide $100 billion annually in funds to developing countries. This issue was raised in Glasgow, but it has not gone anywhere since. There is no prospect of achieving this goal in 2022.

Second, developing countries, including many Pacific nations, will advocate for an increased focus on financing to adapt to the effects of global warming.

So far, most of the money has been directed to mitigation projects, which focus on helping developing countries reduce their emissions. But with the growing sense of climate change in developing countries, financing for adaptation is becoming more important.

Third, the Paris Agreement included recognizing potential “losses and damages”. This refers to the devastation caused by climate change, as mitigation and adaptation efforts have been insufficient to prevent such damage.

At that time, there was no obligation to provide compensation for losses and damages. In Egypt, developing countries are likely to press more forcefully for financial commitments from the developed world.

The developed world has contributed significantly to climate change and could better pay to reverse its effects. But the developing world is the least responsible, more likely to feel the effects of climate and least able to afford to manage those effects.

With the location of these conversations in Africa, we can expect these issues to be particularly prominent at COP27.

International politics storm clouds

While global agreement on climate action has been difficult to achieve in the past, recent international policies have cast additional shadows on the prospects for true cooperation at COP27.

First, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to rising global inflation, soaring energy prices, and heightening international concerns about energy access. All of these things have captured attention – and even potential financing – from the imperative of climate action.

It also means that Russia, a key player in international climate talks, could play a spoiler role.

Second, China, the world’s largest emitter, appears similarly dissatisfied with current global policies. This has been evident in its approach to international climate policies.

For example, in Glasgow, China concluded a breakthrough agreement with the United States on climate cooperation. But that was put on hold shortly after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022.

We are running out of time

Egypt’s Minister of International Cooperation announced in May that the focus of international action at COP27 should move from “commitments to implementation”.

While this includes targets to reduce emissions, the hosts have also been clear about the need for developed countries to meet their financial commitments. The emergence of climate change has clearly made this a pressing concern for many in the developing world who are already feeling its effects.

And these conversations are clearly a pivotal moment for the planet, as we risk running out of time in our efforts to avert climate catastrophe.

Matt MacDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Queensland

This article has been republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Originally published at San Jose News Bulletin